Calibration Report v1.0 · generated 2026-04-18

Borovoy Coefficient — MTM-Literal retrospective calibration

Key metrics

AUC
0.537
Brier score
0.2307
n (corpus)
15
positives
6
negatives
9

Interpretation

AUC = 0.54 indicates MTM-L alone has limited discriminative power on this corpus. Brier score = 0.231 (lower is better; baseline of always-predicting-mean ≈ 0.00). 87% of laws scored MTM-L = 0, reflecting that most struck-down Canadian statutes are NOT literally misaligned on face — they fail at the purposive/contextual level (MTM-F, MTM-C). Implication: MTM-L is a conservative, narrow test. It flags textually-broken statutes, but many Charter-invalid laws pass MTM-L because their pathology is purposive, not literal. The MTM-F and MTM-C tiers (coming soon) are where the remaining predictive signal should live.

Reliability diagram — predicted vs observed (5 bins)

0 0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 1 1 Predicted MTM-L (normalized to [0,1]) Observed outcome mean

Weights — spec v1.0 prior vs data-fitted

ParameterSpec v1.0Fitted95% CI
α (weight on 1 − F)0.50.4979[0.4931, 0.5005]
β (weight on X)0.50.5021[0.4995, 0.5069]

Row-level results

IDLawMTM-LFXDispositionAuthority
fed-01 Access to Information Act, RSC 1985, c A-1 12.50 1.000 0.250 upheld Access to Information Act has not been struck; performance issues are enforcement-level
fed-02 Anti-Terrorism Act, 2015 (Bill C-51), SC 2015, c 20 0.00 1.000 0.000 upheld Bill C-51 / ATA 2015 provisions largely upheld; Charter challenges ongoing but no strike to date
fed-03 Section 13, Canadian Human Rights Act, RSC 1985, c H-6 (pre-repeal) 0.00 1.000 0.000 read_down CHRA s.13 — repealed by Parliament 2013; prior challenges read it down narrowly
fed-04 Security Certificate regime, IRPA ss. 77-85 (pre-Charkaoui) 0.00 1.000 0.000 struck Charkaoui v. Canada (Citizenship and Immigration), 2007 SCC 9 — security certificate regime struck under s.7
fed-05 Criminal Code s.95 mandatory minimum for prohibited firearm possession (pre-Nur) 16.67 1.000 0.333 struck R. v. Nur, 2015 SCC 15 — CC s.95(2)(a) mandatory minimum struck under s.12
muni-01 Toronto Parks Bylaw, Toronto Municipal Code Ch. 608 (encampment enforcement) 0.00 1.000 0.000 read_down Toronto Parks Bylaw encampment — injunctive read-down in Black v. Toronto 2023 ONSC
muni-02 Vancouver Street and Traffic Bylaw #2849 (camping/tent provisions) 0.00 1.000 0.000 read_down Vancouver camping bylaw — read down in Adams v. Victoria 2008 BCSC line of authority
muni-03 Montreal Bylaw P-6 (protest regulation), CO Montreal 2012 (pre-strike) 0.00 1.000 0.000 struck Montreal Bylaw P-6 protest provisions — struck in Villeneuve c. Montréal, 2016 QCCS 2888 (affirmed 2018 QCCA 321)
muni-04 Calgary Streets Bylaw 20M88 (aggressive solicitation provisions) 0.00 1.000 0.000 upheld Calgary Streets Bylaw aggressive solicitation — upheld in R. v. Banks line of authority by analogy
muni-05 Vancouver Noise Control Bylaw #6555 0.00 1.000 0.000 upheld Vancouver Noise Control Bylaw #6555 — upheld; no Charter strike
prov-01 Ontario Safe Streets Act, SO 1999, c 8 0.00 1.000 0.000 upheld Ontario Safe Streets Act — upheld in R. v. Banks, 2007 ONCA 19
prov-02 Act respecting the Laicity of the State (Quebec Bill 21), SQ 2019, c 12 0.00 1.000 0.000 upheld Quebec Bill 21 — substantially upheld at QCCA 2024; SCC leave pending
prov-03 Critical Infrastructure Defence Act, SA 2020, c C-32.7 (Alberta) 0.00 1.000 0.000 upheld Alberta Critical Infrastructure Defence Act — pending; no SCC strike as of 2026
prov-04 Civil Forfeiture Act, SBC 2005, c 29 (BC — unexplained wealth order provisions) 0.00 1.000 0.000 upheld BC Civil Forfeiture Act unexplained-wealth provisions — upheld under existing jurisprudence
prov-05 Ontario Not-for-Profit Corporations Act, 2010, SO 2010, c 15 (ONCA) 0.00 1.000 0.000 upheld Ontario Not-for-Profit Corporations Act — upheld; no Charter strike